Conejo Valley voters will decide Nov. 3 whether California should impose a one-time 5% tax on residents worth more than $1 billion.

Proposition 40 would apply to billionaires who were California residents as of Jan. 1, 2026, according to the California Legislative Analyst's Office. The tax would be due in 2027. Taxpayers could spread payments over five years but would pay more to do so. Real estate, pensions and retirement accounts would generally be excluded.

How much it would raise

The measure's sponsor, Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West (SEIU-UHW), says Prop. 40 would affect about 200 people and raise $100 billion. The LAO's fiscal analysis puts the figure lower, saying the state would "probably collect tens of billions of dollars" spread across several years. Exact revenue is hard to predict, the LAO said, because billionaires may take steps to reduce what they owe and because much of their wealth is tied to changing stock prices.

Ninety percent of the revenue would go to health care. The remaining 10% would fund education, food assistance and administration of the tax, according to the LAO. Existing state spending limits and school-funding requirements would not apply to the money.

Why supporters say it matters locally

Proponents say the tax responds to federal spending cuts in the budget reconciliation law known as H.R. 1. State officials project those cuts could reduce California's Medi-Cal funding by $30 billion a year, according to CalMatters reporting published by the Ventura County Star.

In Ventura County, more than 227,000 residents are covered by Medi-Cal. Enrollment at the Gold Coast Health Plan, which administers the program locally, dropped by nearly 6% since October 2025, the Ventura County Star reported in May. No public data shows how much Prop. 40 revenue, if any, would flow directly to Ventura County.

Supporters include the California Democratic Party, the California Nurses Association and U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, according to the Official Voter Information Guide.

What opponents say

Opponents warn the tax could push billionaires out of California, taking their annual income tax payments with them. The LAO estimates that response could reduce state revenues by less than $1 billion per year, meaning less money for the General Fund that pays for education, health care and prisons.

Gov. Gavin Newsom opposes the measure. Both gubernatorial candidates, Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton, also oppose it. In Ventura County Star coverage of a September debate, Becerra said, "It's that this is not the way to do tax policy." He called for a tax approach that is predictable, sustainable and fair. Hilton said the measure would drive tax revenue from the state.

Other opponents include the California Teachers Association, the California Medical Association and the California Professional Firefighters, according to the voter guide.

The opposition campaign has outspent supporters by more than 5-to-1, according to the Sacramento Bee. Campaign finance data accessed Oct. 10 showed opponents had raised more than $130 million, while supporters had raised nearly $33 million, the Ventura County Star reported.

Countermeasures on the ballot

Two related measures also appear on the Nov. 3 ballot. Proposition 41 would prohibit new state taxes that exclude revenue from the state spending limit. Proposition 42 would ban new personal property taxes and certain retroactive state taxes passed after January 2026. If either receives more "yes" votes than Prop. 40, courts could block the wealth tax from taking effect, the LAO said. Supporters of those countermeasures have raised more than $186 million, according to campaign finance data.

Where polls stand

A Citrin-POLITICO poll released Oct. 19 found 46% of likely voters favor Prop. 40 and 43% oppose it. An Independent Voter Project survey conducted Sept. 23 through Oct. 2 found 40% in favor and 38% opposed, but support trailed opposition 38% to 42% when voters heard the LAO's estimate of potential income-tax losses, the Ventura County Star reported in October.

California's general election is Tuesday, Nov. 3.